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13.11.2026 05:35 AM
The GBP/USD pair continued to move lower on Thursday, although a rise in sterling would have been more logical. Yesterday the UK released GDP and industrial-production data for Q3 and for September. The economy showed 1.9% year-on-year growth in Q3 (in line with forecasts), 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (in line with forecasts) and 0.2% for September (above forecasts). Industrial production rose 0.3% month-on-month versus forecasts of -0.3%. Thus, two of the four reports beat expectations. Did the pound rally on those releases? Rhetorical question. The decline continued for a third consecutive day after the US monthly inflation report surprised by +0.1% versus expectations. This week sterling has traded in sync with the euro, ignoring virtually all positives for itself — geopolitics, macro data and fundamentals. Therefore, the pound's decline could continue back toward the lower edges of the daily and weekly sideways channels in the 1.3110–1.3180 range. Beyond that, it will depend on whether traders can break out of those channels on a fourth attempt.
Technically, sterling is forming a downtrend after breaking the ascending trendline. Higher timeframes still support further upside in the longer term, but the pound is falling again too fast and too far, heading toward the lower boundaries of the two major sideways channels.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals formed on Thursday. During the Asian session, the price bounced from 1.3248, allowing traders to open long positions. The subsequent rise was weak and short-lived, and during the US session a sell signal formed at about the same level. The decline was also modest but may continue today.
COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions throughout 2026. The net position is negative despite the maintenance of a long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar remains fairly high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran has been formally put on pause but could resume at any moment. The Federal Reserve's changed stance on monetary policy also supports the dollar, and the ascending trendline was breached. However, it was breached within a flat range, so we do not consider the uptrend finished.
In the long run, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim directly and indirectly to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated November 3), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,100 BUY contracts and closed 12,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 19,600 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward correction but overall retains a bullish bias. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the pair is targeting 1.3650, which is the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. In recent days, US data have triggered another anomalous dollar rally, but GBP/USD remains inside sideways channels on higher timeframes. These channels protect it from a collapse like the euro's.
For November 13 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Ichimoku Senkou Span B (1.3386) and Kijun-sen (1.3339) lines can also generate signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals.
Today, no important releases or events are scheduled in the UK, while the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published. It is not the most important inflation report, but it can provoke a modest market reaction.
Traders can consider the 1.3179–1.3187 area a target for short positions since 1.3248 has been breached. A close above 1.3248 would make 1.3301–1.3309 a target for long positions.
