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06.11.2026 10:44 AMOn Thursday, EUR/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar once again and began another downward move without managing to break out of its horizontal trading range. Consequently, the decline may continue toward the two most recent lows.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while traders consider other factors secondary.
There was no significant economic news on Thursday, but the currency market had plenty of developments to assess. First, traders reassessed their initial interpretation of the US election results and concluded that the change in the balance of power in Congress could benefit the US dollar. At the very least, the Democrats' victory in the congressional elections is not necessarily negative for the dollar. As a result, the US currency resumed its appreciation.
Overnight, it became known that Donald Trump is still considering the possibility of completely destroying Iran. This would increase geopolitical tensions, which had only recently eased following conciliatory statements from Democrats. However, as developments suggest, Trump has no intention of ending the conflict because of the election losses. Oil prices are rising again, while the US dollar is benefiting from demand for safe-haven assets.
Today, the United States will also release important Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will indicate whether September's disappointing figures were an isolated occurrence. The US dollar's appreciation ahead of these releases suggests that the market is anticipating positive results. However, forecasts indicate that neither report is likely to show particularly encouraging figures. The dollar could weaken in the second half of the day.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar after the CCI indicator formed a second bearish divergence. Consolidation below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221 supports the prospect of further declines toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No new emerging divergences are currently visible.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 374,000. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for as long as necessary.
Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Naturally, various global developments, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events. Therefore, the European currency is waiting for more favorable conditions.
On November 6, the economic calendar contains six releases, at least two of which are particularly important. Economic data could have a significant impact on market sentiment on Friday, particularly during the second half of the day.
Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair reverses near either of the two most recent swing points on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities emerged after the pair closed below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. These short positions can remain open.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.
