The pound found no support yesterday and continued sliding down. GBP/USD trades around 1.3258, with today's overnight low at 1.3249. For scale: the pair was near 1.3316 yesterday afternoon, 1.3378 Monday morning, and reached 1.3458 on November 10 — so the pound lost roughly 200 pips in two days.

Yesterday, neither the absence of UK data nor expectations of another Bank of England hike helped. On November 5 the BoE raised the rate by 25 bp to 4.00% with a 9-0 vote. Andrew Bailey said a second hike is more likely than not, and the market prices December about 50/50. But US markets offered more: US yields rose sharply again, and the probability of a December Fed hike reached 96%.

Today the pound faces a busy block of UK data, and the forecasts are not encouraging. The main event is Q3 GDP. GDP shows how much the economy grew; the quarterly rise is expected at 0.7% after 0.5% in the prior period, and annual growth is expected to accelerate to 1.9% from 1.4%. But monthly figures look weaker: September GDP is forecast at -0.1% after +0.1%. That means the quarter could appear decent overall while the last month shows cooling, and the market will likely focus on that monthly weakness.

Following GDP come industrial-production figures. Manufacturing output in September is forecast to fall 0.5% month-on-month after a 1.2% rise, and overall industrial production to decline 0.3% after +0.8%. The goods-trade balance completes the suite: the deficit is expected to widen to £19.2bn from £18.0bn. The larger the trade deficit, the weaker the currency tends to be. The RICS house-price balance already came out at -36% versus -33% expected, meaning housing is cooling faster than anticipated. These indicators directly influence Bank of England rate expectations. If weakness is confirmed, the case for a second hike will weaken, and pressure on the pound will return quickly.

However, yesterday's decline showed that even expected rate hikes do not support the pound while US yields are rising. In my view, weak UK data will likely increase pressure on sterling further.

Momentum

The price is now at 1.3258, inside a range between 1.3241 and 1.3275. A move beyond the boundary is a breakout, but one touch isn't enough—confirmation is needed, meaning several consecutive five-minute candles must close beyond the level. Otherwise, you can easily get caught by a false breakout, after which price returns.

From above 1.3275 is active. A close above it opens the way to 1.3301 and then to 1.3328. For such a push, you need a catalyst, and that could be unexpectedly strong GDP figures. Overnight, the price tested this zone and reversed down, so it is a proven ceiling. I have little faith in this scenario.

From below, the reference is 1.3241; a close below it leads to 1.3209 and then to 1.3183. I consider this direction primary. Price is 17 pips from the level, and forecasts for industrial production and trade are weak while the dollar remains strong. Today's low at 1.3249 did not reach the level, so buyers are defending it for now. If weak data are confirmed, they may not be enough, but entry should be made only after candles close below the level.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels here, 1.3276 and 1.3238, and both sit very close to the breakout points, so extra caution is required. The upper reference, 1.3276, is only one pip above the breakout point, 1.3275. That is practically the same price, and you cannot tell which scenario has activated on the first touch. If the price breaks 1.3275, reaches 1.3276, and quickly returns below, the reversion works, and I consider selling with a stop above 1.3283 with a small buffer. If it confidently closes above 1.3276, that is a real breakout, and selling there is not allowed. The difference between the two scenarios can take several minutes, so it is better to skip the first reaction in the zone.

The lower reference 1.3238 sits three pips below 1.3241. The scheme is mirrored. Price breaks 1.3241, falls to 1.3238, finds no continuation, returns above, and then I look to buy with a stop below 1.3230 with a buffer. This rebound is most likely if GDP prints near expectations and the market calms after the initial reaction. If price closes below 1.3238, the reversion is canceled, and the downward breakout plays, with the 1.3209 target only 30 pips away.